The deaths of 12 children in the Golan Heights at the weekend in a Hezbollah rocket attack has raised fears of an escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed terror group on the northern border. Hezbollah has been ramping up its attacks on Israel since the 7 October attacks, with observers warning that only a slight miscalculation could lead to major hostilities. The weekend’s appalling events may be that long-feared tipping point.
What happened
- Twelve Druze children have died, and dozens of others were injured, on Saturday in an attack by Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah on a football pitch in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams. Representing the deadliest strike since Hezbollah intensified its attacks on Israel after 7 October, the Israeli and US militaries have blamed the terror group, identifying the rocket used as an Iran-made Falaq-1 with over 50kg of explosives.
- Hezbollah initially claimed responsibility for launching a barrage of Katyusha rockets and a single heavy Falaq rocket at a nearby military base, but backtracked following news of the civilian deaths. Thousands gathered for the children’s funerals on Sunday as Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, the leader of the Druze community in the area, said the “horrific massacre” had crossed “every possible red line”.
- Since Saturday, Israel has responded with several responsive strikes, including on Monday killing two people. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned early from his visit to the US to meet with the security cabinet, which has given him the power to determine the “manner and timing” of Israel’s response. Reports suggest Israel’s response will be “harsh but contained”. The security cabinet’s decision to empower the Netanyahu and defence minister Yoav Gallant is seen as a way of both speeding up decision-making and circumventing far-right cabinet ministers.
- Laying a wreath at the site of the attack on Monday, the prime minister said: “These children are our children, they are all the children of all of us […] Israel will not and cannot let this simply pass on by. Our response will come, and it will be harsh.”
Will this incident spark major Israel-Hezbollah hostilities?
Hezbollah ramped up its ongoing attacks on Israel on October 8 following Hamas’s assault the day before. Hezbollah’s aim was to open a second front to strain Israel’s military response in Gaza. A key proxy in Iran’s “axis of resistance” bent on Israel’s destruction, the closely calibrated months-long exchanges have killed 23 Israeli civilians and at least 17 soldiers, while at least 300 Hezbollah fighters and more than 100 civilians have also died. Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides of the contested border.
American and French mediators have worked to de-escalate the conflict between the two since hostilities began, with both Israel and Hezbollah viewed as being reluctant to enter into a major war – the first since 2006 which ended in a stalemate.
Sensing the potential for a major escalation between Israel and its largest and most entrenched regional proxy, the Iranian foreign ministry warned against “military adventures” in Lebanon that could lead to “unforeseen consequences”. Iran has threatened previously to re-enter the war against Israel following its massive attack on the country in April if a full-scale war with Hezbollah erupts.
The US, UK and other western powers have called for de-escalation – as has Lebanon’s government. Hezbollah has been calculated in its exchanges thus far as fears of being seen to instigate a major war with Israel could diminish its support in the crisis-riven country. If Israel were to unleash a major attack well beyond the boundaries of current exchanges, the terror group may seek to restore deterrence through a major strike on Israeli territory. However, Israel appears unwilling to cross the threshold into an all-out war, with officials saying Israel wants to “hurt” Hezbollah but not instigate a major conflagration.
A sensitive incident for both sides
Despite months of war and deaths on all sides, this incident has struck an emotional chord in Israel. Majdal Shams is one of four towns in the Golan Heights, where about 25,000 members of the Arabic-speaking Druze religious and ethnic group live. Druze culture and tradition leads to its members to support the state in which they reside, with many Druze in Israel holding Israeli citizenship and the Druze community contributing the largest number of non-Jewish Israelis serving in the IDF.
The attack took place in the Golan Heights, an upland area captured by Israel in the 1967 six day war and which forms a strategic buffer zone with Syria. Druze residents there have been offered Israeli citizenship, which some – especially younger members of the community – have chosen to take up alongside learning Hebrew.
There are roughly one million Druze spread across Israel, Lebanon and Syria with a strong sense of collective unity. Anger following the attack amongst Druze in Lebanon prompted the Lebanese government to issue a rare public statement condemning the strike. Fearing diminished credibility in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s backtracking efforts to deny responsibility indicates the extent of its concern.
